ARE YOU SURE YOU’RE RIGHT?

The Scientific, Data-Driven Approach

Opinions Aren’t Facts

When we were all younger, most newspapers and TV reporters gave us the facts, unvarnished and untainted by their opinions on the news.  Treated as adults, we then formed our own opinions and judgments.  Not only is this what news is supposed to be, it also leads to less polarization.  When “talking heads” tell us what to think, it’s easy to default to buying into their opinions.  It simply takes less effort.

However, each of us forms a world view, which is not an actual view of what is happening, but a narrowed view, informed by our experience, education, values and attitudes.  Basically, this means that all of us are wrong a lot of the time, unless we take the time to gather the data and let the facts lead us to a conclusion.  We may start with a hypothesis, but we don’t let it control our interpretation.

Time-Honored Process

The scientific method, not always honored in the profession, starts with proposing a hypothesis, designing a way to test it and then letting the results speak for themselves.  As an example, based on my experience and education in biological science, I concluded in March ’20 that Covid was the result of a lab leak.  The Chinese are very sloppy in their scientific method, and, in fact, lab leaks aren’t that uncommon.  It’s just that most civilized societies lock them down fast to minimize the damage.

Still, I didn’t KNOW that this was the cause.  I started gathering data.  Each story presented to “explain” the problem fell short quickly; pangolins were not involved and the specific bat had never been sold in the Wuhan wet market.  Data kept coming in and over time, I felt there was enough to justify my initial hypothesis.  Others are now increasingly agreeing that this is the most likely explanation, which means the CCP is responsible for worldwide devastation, chaos, lives lost and economic disaster.

I’m not always right, but my data-driven approach will allow me to correct my hypothesis.  You simply have to control the urge to decide that your hypothesis is right because you want it to be.  We trust doctors and scientists to use this method and not leap to the first attractive answer.  We owe it to ourselves to use the same rigorous approach.

Politics and the Media

Unfortunately, as Bernie Sanders wrote in his book, “Bias,” many people do decide that their opinion is right before gathering data (and in most cases, without bothering to gather data).  This is particularly true with our politicians and most of the media.  Politicians start with their platform as “the truth” and adjust the facts to meet it.  In many cases, they are also simply dishonest, but people want to believe.  We like to have sources we can trust.  Unfortunately, the data shows we cannot trust either our politicians or the media.

Modern monetary theory (a new idea) held that you could just print money to solve all problems.  We’ve seen how that worked out—record-breaking inflation.  Radical changes in criminal prosecution were supposed to lead to lower rates of crime because people weren’t angered by “unfair” punishment.  San Francisco is a war zone, courtesy of lax enforcement.  Other cities led by Soros-supported DAs are suffering the same outcomes.  But instead of learning from the data, Democrats want to double down on things that simply don’t work.  Their platform tells them that everyone is basically good, so we don’t have to incarcerate evil-doers.  We give them a stiff warning and they will be good after that.

Solving the Problem

We can’t change the politicians who are both in love with their theories and largely immune to the consequences by dint of tax-payer protection.  But we can start doing the work of testing our theories and challenging those who would push us to believe something that simply doesn’t stand up to the facts.  We need to do this before voting each time, both on candidates and issues.  If we want to live in a world where facts and science matter, we need to be willing to do the work to understand what we’re up against.

If more voters challenge their own worldviews and look at data carefully and dispassionately, then vote based on this, we will see a change.  Candidates will have to more carefully consider their own views on how the world works to get elected.  We need to write to politicians, protest and demand that they use sane, data-driven information to design policies.  Wishing it were so doesn’t work in the real world.  Yes, it would be nice if people cared about strangers as much as they care for themselves and their family, but we don’t.  And given the history of lying to us, misleading us and especially, during the pandemic, exercising powers they simply do not have, we should stop trusting anything they say.  Challenge them.  They need to have better proof.

Nothing is more telling than the way they reacted to the CCP virus.  To politicians, it was a great way to increase their power over us, people they consider too stupid to rule.  First “masks don’t work,” then two masks are better.  Now, we know they really don’t do much.  Vaccines were forced onto people and yet, the inventor of the mRNA technology that underlies Covid vaccines, Robert Malone, has come out against repeated vaccination, explaining the risks to all of us.  He spoke at FreedomFest; the audience was clearly moved by his appeal.  But we all HAVE to be repeatedly vaccinated.

Think about it.  Don’t you believe you are smarter than Joe Biden or Nancy Pelosi?  And less evil than Anthony Fauci who parlayed AIDS into a career as “the science?”  Act on that intelligence.  We can do better.

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