There has been a lot of talk about why the birth rate is falling so drastically in developed countries (except for Muslim families). We are well below replacement (two children per two parents), and while many people are living longer, that isn’t a long-term solution. One could blame birth control, but the Pill has been around since the ‘60’s, so we should have seen this problem much earlier. Falling population is a global problem, but we’ll focus on the United States here, because I have the data. In the US, the nationwide birth rate fell a lot between 2007 and 2022, from 14.3 births per 1000 to 11.1, which is almost a 23% drop.
People aren’t getting married as much anymore. While you can still have children when you’re unmarried, marriage has been proven to not only encourage child-bearing, but is also proven to provide the best outcomes for children. The rate has fallen approximately 20% in the past 18 years.
Some leaders, like Bill Gates, really support drastic reductions in the population. It’s unclear whether he has considered the consequences. And the transgender movement will definitely have an impact, as once you transition, you are effectively sterile.
A Big Factor
Unaffordable housing is likely a big factor in prospective parents’ decision on whether or not to have children. While two adults can somewhat happily live with a one-bedroom or even a studio, the presence of children demands a bigger space. Children will need a bedroom, even if they end up sharing, but if you have a boy and a girl, the need for separate bedrooms is more acute as they grow past babyhood. It’s also important for children to have access to a safe place to play outside, generally their own yard. Thus, even a larger apartment may not provide the optimal environment many parents would desire.
Housing prices may also be killing marriage. Too many adults have moved back in with their parents due to the unaffordability of even an apartment. Some are working really hard, but the pay can’t keep up with the increase in prices of apartments and houses. For most people, their dependence on parental housing makes them undesirable to people they might wed. Parents of young adults could do a better job in helping them understand not just how to make a marriage work, but to highlight the benefits of marriage, especially when they have children.
How many Baby Boomer parents have complained about raising their kids, not sharing the delight they found in being parents. When you make something sound unpleasant, don’t expect your children to make the same “mistake.” Marriage and child-rearing can be hard work, but it is often joyful work.
Even apartments are less available and more expensive. Why is this? Two factors, both the fault of government, make people less interested in being landlords. First, Covid brought the promise of rent-free housing, hoping to keep the unemployed off the street. This benefit kept being extended until small landlords couldn’t maintain their places and even, in many cases, lost the property as they couldn’t keep up with property taxes and mortgage payments. These landlords won’t be back. A once-desirable way to supplement your income or have a better retirement no longer looks safe. Once the government could force you to house people for free, you can never trust that it won’t happen again.
The second problem is rent control. While nominally trying to keep people from price-gouging, the reality is that most landlords seek to have long-term tenants. They raise prices carefully, and only to pay for their increased expenses. My husband had rentals over the years and he always sought to have people keep renting, year-to-year, rather than to have to find new renters. The ones who stay take good care of your property. Big companies may not care as much, but there is significant expense to constant move-outs and also the risk that the place might stay unrented for months.
Rent control and rent forgiveness, along with longstanding rules against evicting problem tenants have led many people to get out of the housing business. Even the big companies are converting more places to sellable condos, rather than having to rent. Here’s the thing. Market forces generally keep rents in reasonable range. Why? Well, if I have the same kind of property as you do, and you raise your rent too high, my place is more desirable and easier to manage. Yes, there are exceptions, but the way rent control is implemented doesn’t achieve the goal of plentiful, affordable housing.
Killing the American Dream
I still remember moving from a small rental unit to a real house when I was young (and my sister was four and ready for a room.) My parents borrowed some money from their parents for the down payment and were able to make it work, even as my mother was busy raising us. Now, in many places, it is virtually impossible to buy a house unless both people are working and making a really good income The American Dream, as we Boomers saw it, was to have a house and a car. And by the way, car prices, especially EVs, are out of sight.
Aside from the causes I’ve already mentioned, there are other factors at work destroying the dream. The first is inflation. While well under control for years, the Biden administration has caused unfathomable pain with the rapid increase in inflation, not really tamed by the Fed raising the interest rates. The Fed uses unreliable data on employment rates to justify their actions. And when interest rates rise, people cannot afford to take out loans to buy a house. Also, interest rates drive prices across the board. When it costs more to buy everything, especially gas and food, housing affordability craters. This will not get better as long as Dems keep spending money that we don’t have on their pet projects. You cannot tame inflation by inflating the money supply. That’s basic economics.
People aren’t building more properties. First, inflation raises the cost of building materials and the push towards a higher minimum wage locks unskilled people out of jobs and raises the price of finished housing. Regulation is also a problem. Despite claiming that he has reduced regulation, Gavin Newsom hasn’t done much. It can still take way too many years to build a housing complex because of all the hoops builders have to jump through. Making a law that communities must build doesn’t work when you make it impossible to do so. And in Democrat cities, many times delays are caused by people not wanting any more building in their town. They can block housing for years with challenges.
Illegal immigrants are shoving citizens and especially, veterans, out of affordable housing. Why? Their needs should take a distant back seat to those of citizens and legal immigrants. By opening the border and inviting illegals to come in, then offering them largesse none of our poor will ever see, we have a flood of people who demand to be housed, fed, transported and treated, costing us billions. They also drive the salaries of unskilled citizens down.
The Solution
I’m starting to sound like a record. VOTE THEM OUT! We need to get back to people who understand economics and especially housing and building. Guess who is best at that? Donald Trump. He also was successful in pushing back against regulations and trying to reduce the burden on all of us. Jobs soared under him, illegal immigration cratered and people had hope again.
If you vote for any Democrat, you are voting to continue the disastrous polices noted above. Stop doing it!
I’m amazed at what housing costs. I see relatively young people buying million dollar plus homes and I can’t figure out how they do it. How do they manage their mortgage?